TEN-YEAR TRENDS (since 2000):
Favourites - Unseated, 3 x fell, 3rd, pulled up, 2nd / fell / 2 x unseated, 1st, 2nd & 3rd, 3 x fell, 1st, 7th (+£6.00 gain to a £1 stake)
Position in the market: 2 0 0 8 8 1 3 0 1 0
Record of previous year's winner: 0 4 6 4 0 2 6 2
Average winning odds - 25.3/1
Only six winners in the first eight in the betting
Average winning weight - 10st 9.6lbs
All bar two carrying under 10-12
Average winning age - 9.7 years
All bar three aged nine or ten
Average rating - 140
All bar one rated between 136 and 144
Average chase runs - 18.3
All bar two had between 10 and 25 runs
% of winners placed in their last race (i.e. 1st, 2nd or 3rd) is 50% (only two won)
Only two of the last ten winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival
Only five of the last ten winners were running in the Grand National for the first time
All of the last ten winners had either finished placed over the National fences or had a top-five finish in the Welsh National, Irish National or Hennessy Gold Cup.
Win to age ratio:
8 year olds – 1 win
9 year olds – 4 wins
10 year olds – 3 wins
11 year olds – 1 win
12 year olds – 1 win
Other Key Statistics
The following statements apply to ALL of the last ten winners:
• Officially rated 136 to 148
• Carried 11 stone 1lbs or less
• Aged between 8 and 12
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• Between four and six runs since August
• Won a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Chase
• Ran between 20 and 49 days prior to the race
• Had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form
Jockeys still riding that have already won a Grand National:
Liam Treadwell 2009
Timmy Murphy 2008
Robbie Power 2007
Niall Madden 2006
Ruby Walsh 2005 & 2000
Graham Lee 2004
Barry Geraghty 2003
Paul Carberry 1999
It is interesting to note that Ruby Walsh has completed the Grand National course on all bar one of his nine rides and he has a better record than any other jockey in ‘National’ marathon races, having won the Scottish National, Irish National (twice) and Welsh National.
Trainers with a runner who have already won a Grand National:
Venetia Williams 2009
David Pipe 2008
Gordon Elliot 2007
Willie Mullins 2005
Jimmy Mangan 2003
Nigel Twiston Davies 2003 & 1998
About Me
- DizzyJB
- I have been obsessed with the Grand National ever since Aldaniti was my first winner in 1981, aged nine. This annual preview has actually been going since 1992, long before blogs and social media, proudly boasting a strike rate of over 60% from the final shortlist until 2008 (although that's dropped to 50% in the last decade!). Enjoy reading this year's edition, but bet on my tips at your peril - they come with all of the necessary caveats and wealth warnings. If you do decide to have a flutter good luck!