The Betting

Despite Mon Mome's success at an astounding 100/1 last year (quite bizarre given that the same horse had started 9/2 favourite for the Welsh National just four months before), it is actually a myth that big priced horses regularly win the National.

Although ten winners in the last 40 years have surprised at odds of 20/1 or bigger (and I certainly wouldn't discount any horse based on odds alone), since 1990 no fewer than 14 winners have started beween 7/1 and 16/1 - all of them featuring in the first ten in the betting. This includes four winning favourites in the last 15 years (Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die, all at 7/1).

The truth is, since the National fences were made easier the results have been more predictable - and generally speaking most of the winners in the last 20 years had the form and class to be relatively well fancied in the betting.

As things stand, the following ten horses are likely to head the market come the big day (current average odds in brackets):

Big Fella Thanks (8/1)
Mon Mome (11/1)
The Package (14/1)
Snowy Morning (14/1)
Black Apalachi (14/1)
Abor Supreme (16/1)
Tricky Trickster (16/1)
Niche Market (16/1)
Character Building (16/1)
State of Play (16/1)

Interestingly, most of these would be rejected on the trends. Arbor Supreme, nicely weighted on 10st 8lb, with proven stamina and decent form this season is arguably the most interesting of the three horses that qualify on every count.

The likely favourite Big Fella Thanks would also make the cut, but only just - although he's only 8 years old and a second season chaser he's had 10 runs over fences now, including in this race last year (when finishing sixth) and a number of other competitive senior handicaps in the last 15 months.

Big Fella Thanks will also have the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the saddle, which is a big plus (see The Ruby Factor section for more details). In stark contrast, Champion Jockey Tony McCoy has a terrible record in the race (he has completed the course on only 5 out of his 14 rides to date, although he has finished third on three occasions).

Snowy Morning is something of a Grand National veteran; he finished third behind Comply or Die in 2008 before finishing down the field in 9th behind Mon Mome in 2009. He was carrying 11st 8lbs last year - so he looks to be well treated on just 10st 13lb this time.

However, there are good reasons for avoiding most of the other horses on this list.

Mon Mome is a previous winner - and too high in the weights on 11 stone 7lb. The two Becher Chase winners, Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi will also have to carry too much weight at 11 stone 6lb.

The Package and Tricky Trickster, although likely types for the National, are both still just seven years old and do not have the requisite experience over fences.

Last year's Irish National winner, Niche Market, would have to come into the reckoning too, although his surprise run in the Aon Chase (finishing a short head runner up) has nudged his weight up a little high at 11 stone 4lb.

Last year's fourth State Of Play would definitely be another for the shortlist at 10 stone 11lb if it weren't for the fact that he's only had one outing so far this season - and that was back in November (pulled up behind Denman in the Hennessy).

So if the betting counts for anything, when combined with all the other trends Big Fella Thanks, Abor Supreme and Snowy Morning would be the strongest contenders on this list.