Staying Power

The next important factor we’ll consider is stamina. It is essential that horses have proven staying power in order to get through the gruelling marathon four and a half mile trip of the National. They must therefore have already won over at least three miles (24 furlongs) during their career in order to demonstrate that they have the stamina to last home.

This key statistic applied to every single winner since Gay Trip in 1970. In fact, only Red Marauder (2000) and Binderee (2003) had not scored over a minimum of three miles, one furlong (25 furlongs).

Over a third of this year's entries do not have winning form over this distance of at least three miles, one furlong:

Made In Taipan
Pablo Du Charmil
Ballyholland (winner of 3m point to point)
Preists Leap (winner at 3m)
Snowy Morning (winner at 3m as a novice)
King John's Castle
Conna Castle
Maljimar
Piraya
Palypso De Creek
Flintoff
Cerium
Royal Rosa (winner at 3m as a novice)

As there are relatively limited options available for staying chasers in Ireland, we won't eliminate the three listed above that won a Class 1 or Class 2 event over three miles in soft or heavy ground - as this as good as proves their staying power.

At the other end of the scale, the following horses have all won over marathon distances of over three and a half miles (longest win in brackets):

Mon Mome (4 miles, 4 furlongs)
Comply or Die (4 miles, 4 furlongs)
Niche Market (3 miles, 5 furlongs)
Tricky Trickster (4 miles)
Dream Alliance (3 miles, 5 furlongs)
Arbor Supreme (3 miles, 6 furlongs)
Hello Bud (4 miles, half a furlong)

Setting aside the two previous Grand National winners in this list that are too high in the weights (over 11 stone 4lb), there are four serious contenders here worthy of close consideration.

This includes last year's Irish National winner (Niche Market) and Scottish National winner (Hello Bud), as well as this season's Welsh National hero (Dream Alliance) and the long time ante post favourite Tricky Trickster, who won the 4 mile chase at the Cheltenham Festival by ten lengths last season and was a shock winner of the Aon Chase at Newbury in February.