Weight and Rating

According to the statistics at least, you can forget about the top horses in the handicap set to carry over 11 stone 1lbs. Hedgehunter is the only horse to have carried a weight over 11 stone (and only just, on 11 stone 1lb) to victory in the last 25 years.

To put this into some perspective, since 1984 a total of 103 horses have carried 11 stone 2lb or more - and all have failed. While there have been some notable weight carrying performances to run into a place (often by horses that have run well in the National before - for example, Suny Bay, Hedgehunter and Comply or Die) the fact remains that it is a mammoth task to have the stamina and ability to carry such a heavy burden over the marathon four and a half mile trip.

Coincidentally, all of the horses carrying 11 stone 1lb or over this year are rated 150 or above. There has been no winner rated above 149 since Rough Quest’s victory in 1996, therefore they are also all too high on that scale.

Combining these two facts enable us to discount the following 15 entries for this year's race:

Madison Du Berlais - 11st 10lb weight (158 rating)
Mon Mome - 11st 7lb (155)
Vic Venturi - 11st 6lb (154)
Black Apalachi - 11st 6lb (154)
Joe Lively - 11st 6lb (154)
Don't Push It - 11st 5lb (153)
Comply or Die - 11st 5lb (153)
Tricky Trickster - 11st 4lb (152)
Niche Market - 11st 4lb (152)
Made In Taipan - 11st 4lb (152)
Dream Alliance - 11st 3lb (151)
Cloudy Lane - 11st 3lb (151)
Nozic - 11st 3lb (151)
My Will - 11st 2lb (150)
Pablo du Charmil - 11st 2lb (150)

Unfortunately for us, this also includes many of the leading contenders according to the betting and recent form. Not only are we rejecting the winners of the past two Grand Nationals (Mon Mome and Comply or Die), but also 2009 Welsh National winner (Dream Alliance), the 2009 Irish National winner (Niche Market), the last two Becher Chase winners (Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi), the 2010 Aon Chase winner (Tricky Trickster) and last year's third placed horse (My Will).

Inevitably the classier horses feature at the top end of the handicap - but to encourage them to run, the handicapper has compressed the weights to give these horses a chance. It's only a matter of time therefore before another horse carries over 11 stone to victory, but I still think it takes a special one to lump so much weight around four and a half miles. For this reason, my own personal cut-off point is 11 stone 4lbs - no horse has carried above this weight to win the race since Corbiere in 1983.

Gone are the days when a third of the field would run from out of the handicap. In the last three years the bottom weight has been between 10st 4lb and 10st 7lb. It's likely to be the roughly the same this year - effectively making the race more of a limited handicap. For this reason trends followers are wise to allow an extra four pounds over the traditional 11 stone mark.

Mon Mome is well fancied to become the first back-to-back winner of the National since Red Rum in 1974, but he was an exceptional horse - sadly Mon Mome is not in the same class. He is now vying for favouritism after finishing 3rd in the Gold Cup, but with a weight of 11 stone 7lb realistically a place is the best he can hope for this year - especially after that stamina sapping effort in the mud at Cheltenham...