The Old Rules

There were several basic rules that applied to every Grand National from Red Rum’s last victory in 1977 to Royal Athlete’s win in 1995. Horses to avoid included:

• The favourite
• Any horse starting at less than 10/1
• Any horse not in the first ten in the betting
• Any horse carrying the minimum weight of 10 stone
• Any horse carrying over 11 stone 4lbs
• Any foreign trained horse
• Any mare
• Previous winners
• Any horse aged under 8 or over 12
• Any horse that has not won over a minimum of 3 miles, 1 furlong
• Any horse that has not finished in the first three at some point during the season
• Any horse with less than 2 years chasing experience

A number of these statistics have no longer applied since 1995:

• Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter and Comply or Die all started favourite
• There have been six winners priced at 10/1 or less
• The Irish have dominated the National in recent years – winning six times since 1999
• Bobbyjo and Lord Gyllene won from out of the handicap
• Lord Gyllene and Binderee were only second season chasers
• Red Marauder and Bindaree had never won over further than 3 miles

In 2002 Bindaree became the lowest rated winner since Foinavon - and it’s this downgrading in the quality of winners that is the most significant trend.

Before Mon Mome's victory last year, the previous ten winners were all rated between 136 and 144 – just a narrow eight-pound band, providing further evidence of the decline in recent years. In fact, discount the highest of these Hedgehunter (144) and the lowest Bindaree (136) and eight of the winners since Bobbyjo in 1999 were rated between 138 and 142 – just a four pound margin. That’s quite an amazing statistic in itself.

Last year Mon Mome became the highest rated horse to win the race since 1999 - but even on a rating on 148 he would fit comfortably within the trends for the last 20 years. Only Minnehoma and Rough Quest have had a rating greater than 150 since Mr Frisk's victory in 1990.

The weight and rating statistics still remain by far the strongest pointer towards Grand National glory...