Age and Experience

Applying the age trends is the next obvious way of eliminating some of the other runners. No horse aged seven (or below) has won the Grand National since Bogskar in 1940. Similarly, horses aged 13 and over have a poor record and are without a win since Sergeant Murphy in 1923.

The basic rule of thumb is that horses need experience to win a Grand National; therefore older horses tend to fare better. Novices, or even second season chasers, have a very poor record generally – and all winners of the National since Red Rum in the last three decades have had at least 10 races over fences before attempting the big one at Aintree.

It is even wise to exercise caution before backing horses aged eight – as only four horses have won this young in that time period, and only two since 1983.

The following seven year olds can therefore all safely be discounted:

Tricky Trickster
Piraya
The Package
Palypso De Creek

This includes a couple of well fancied contenders in the shape of Tricky Trickster, aimed at this race by Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls all season, and The Package, trained by David Pipe, who won this race with Comply or Die in 2008.

Tricky Trickster won at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival before disappointing in this year's Gold Cup, although his winning form in the Aon Chase would give him a great chance. The Package ran a much better prep race at the Festival, as he only failed by a head to win the William Hill Trophy, traditionally a decent trial for the Grand National. That was only his eighth race over fences, however, while Tricky Trickster has only had six runs over the larger obstacles, so their inexperience is likely to tell round Aintree.

History also tells us to avoid second season chasers in the Grand National (i.e. not a novice last season) if they still have fewer than 10 runs over fences, which would also include these two horses:

Made in Taipan
Backstage

At the other end of the scale there's just one 13 year old who could still make this year's field - the 2007 winner Silver Birch, who looks up against it now at this ripe old age. He has failed to show his old sparkle this season, most recently finishing well down the field in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival. He is one of the four reserves, so needs a horse to come out in the next 24 hours to get a run.