The New Rules

Taking into account recent trends based on the winners of the past 20 years, the following statistics now apply:

• No horse has carried more than 11 stone 1lb to victory.
• All winners had an Official Rating of at between 136 and 154.
• All winners were aged 8 or older (only two 8YO & three 12YO).
• All bar one had winning form over 3 miles or more.
• All bar two had won a chase contested by 13 or more runners.
• 15 out of the 20 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
• The vast majority had form in one of the key trends races: the Irish, Scottish and Welsh Nationals or the Hennessy.

You could even go further when looking at just the last decade, when the following comments apply to every single winner since 1999:

• Officially rated 136 to 148
• Carried 11 stone 1lbs or less
• Aged between 8 and 12
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• Between four and six runs since August
• Won a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Chase
• Ran within the previous 49 days
• Had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form

On this last point, it is amazing to note that ten out of the last 13 Grand National winners had run in either the Irish or Welsh equivalent at some point in their careers... This is something we'll come back to later.