National Form

As highlighted previously, many races now feature the ‘National’ tag – but it’s worth looking out for, as it shows that the horse will appreciate marathon distances. All of the last 13 winners had at least run in a ‘National’ race, with eleven of these either winning or finishing placed (i.e. in the first three). We’ll also include Becher Chase form (run over the same famous Aintree fences) as it is so relevant to the Grand National.

The following horses running in this year's race all have proven form in these long distance events:

Mon Mome - winner of the 2009 Grand National
Comply or Die - winner of the 2008 Grand National (2nd in 2009)
Black Apalachi - winner of the 2008 Becher Chase
Vic Venturi - winner of the 2009 Becher Chase
Niche Market - winner of the 2009 Irish National
Tricky Trickster - winner of 2009 4m NH Chase
Cloudy Lane - winner of the 2009 Peter Marsh Chase
Dream Alliance - winner of the 2009 Welsh National
My Will - 3rd in the 2009 Grand National
State of Play - winner of the 2006 Hennessy (4th in 2009)
Snowy Morning - 3rd in 2008 Grand National
King John's Castle - 2nd in 2008 Grand National
Eric's Charm - winner of 2009 London National
Hello Bud - winner of 2009 Scottish National
Cerium - 5th in 2009 Grand National

I would be confident in predicting that the winner of this year’s race will come from one of the above named horses.

Another fascinating statistic is that ten out of the last 13 Grand National winners had run in either the Irish or Welsh equivalent. This would include the following horses:

Welsh National

Dream Alliance - won in 2009 (pulled up in 2007)
Ballyfitz - 5th in 2009
Nozic - 9th in 2009
Hello Bud - unseated rider in 2009
Flintoff - pulled up in 2009
Joe Lively - 6th in 2008
Mon Mome - 8th in 2008, 2nd in 2006
Comply or Die - pulled up in 2005

Irish National

Niche Market - won in 2009
Vic Venturi - 8th in 2009, 9th in 2008
Arbor Supreme - 14th in 2009
Preists Leap - 7th in 2008

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see one or more of these horses run big races this year, particularly those that finished in the frame – the bottom line is proven stamina is probably the overriding consideration when attempting to find the Grand National winner.

Remember, last year's winner Mon Mome had finished 2nd in a Welsh National, while Silver Birch was a former Welsh National winner and Numbersixvalverde won the Irish National the year before his GN victory. That's three winners in the last four years that have come out of either the Irish or Welsh National, while even Comply or Die had run at Chepstow earlier in his career prior to Aintree success.