OK, so most of you will probably skip all of the preamble and head straight to this section... This has been updated now that the final field is known.
At the 48-hour declaration stage the following 11 horses (out of a total of 40 runners) would qualify on the trends:
Ballyholland
Beat The Boys
Can't Buy Time
Snowy Morning
Big Fella Thanks
Ellerslie George
Ballyfitz
Eric's Charm
Ollie Magern
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud
If we're ruthless we can thin this out a bit further...
Ballyholland does not have a senior win over a minimum of three miles plus, while Ballyfitz does not have a senior win over fences (just novice chases and hurdles).
You could also make a strong case for getting rid of the two veterans, Eric's Charm and Ollie Magern on the basis of their age (the last two haven't won a race since 2007 and 2008 respectively), but I made the same mistake in dismissing the chances of Amberleigh House a few years back so they still have to be included. Eric's Charm in particular has looked rejuvenated this season and won the London National at Sandown in December.
If you overlay the key statistic relating to experience in the Irish or Welsh National (10 of the last 13 winners), then only Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme and Hello Bud tick this all important box. If you add in those that have experience in the National itself (5 of the last 10 winners), then Can't Buy Time, Snowy Morning and Big Fella Thanks would also be included.
Taking all of this into account, the following five horses would be on my personal shortlist as the strongest contenders to win this year's National:
Can't Buy Time
Snowy Morning
Big Fella Thanks
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud
Although there have been notable gambles on the top four in recent weeks, you can still get juicy prices about the last name on this list. Hello Bud won last year's Scottish National (adding to his victories in the Somerset and Sussex Nationals). For some bizarre reason you can still obtain 50/1 in places - an absolute each way steal if he takes to the Aintree fences as he's guaranteed to stay all day.
It's interesting that Hello Bud and two other horses on the qualifiers above (Ballyfitz and Ollie Magern) are all saddled by Gold Cup winning trainer Nigel Twiston Davies, who has enjoyed a tremendous season so far and has already won the National twice with Earth Summit and Bindaree. While he fancies the chances of last year's Topham Chase winner Irish Rapter (on 10st 7lb, but the horse has had his problems and hasn't raced for 127 days), Hello Bud on 10st 6lb looks a more likely sort to me.
Although Hello Bud has failed to sparkle so far this season and was pulled up in December's Welsh National, he may well be a spring horse. Despite being 12 years old now if the ground is reasonably good he would have a great chance.
But you still have to respect the other horses on this list, three of which are eight year olds and therefore still likely to show improvement:
Big Fella Thanks is looking to give champion trainer Paul Nicholls his first win in the race, but has the best National rider Ruby Walsh on board. The horse won the Skybet Chase at Doncaster over three miles last season and showed his wellbeing last time out when landing the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury over a shorter trip. He finished 6th in this race last year when still only seven years old, so the only niggling doubt has to be whether he truly stays this marathon distance.
Like Big Fella Thanks, Can't Buy Time just squeezes in on the trends. He is is set to carry 10st 13lb and despite being another 8 year old has had 13 runs over fences, including winning a Grade Three event at Cheltenham this season and the Masters Chase at Sandown last year. His last novice run was back in October 2008, so I think he definitely has to enter calculations...
Can't Buy Time fell in last year's National when still only a seven year old, but that did not stop the likes of West Tip, Little Polvier, Royal Athlete, Red Marauder, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch returning to win the big race the following year.
The recent gamble on Arbor Supreme has come out of nowhere, which is a shame for trends followers as he was available at 25/1 just last weekend. He is trained by Willie Mullins, who scored with Hedgehunter in this race five years ago. Nicely weighted on 10st 8lb, apart from his age he is bang in there on the trends. He has wins over 3m 5f and 3m 6f and finished a good second last time out in a 16 runner handicap at Leopardstown.
19 year old Paul Townend gets the ride on Arbor Supreme (he finished 11th on Irish Invader at his first attempt last year), but don't let his inexperience of the big Aintree fences put you off - in the last ten years Ruby Walsh, Niall Madden and Liam Treadwell all won the National on their first rides in the race, while Robbie Power and Graham Lee both won at the second time of asking.
Willie Mullins also trains Snowy Morning, who finished third in this race two years ago and 9th last year. While he is far from confident that the horse can improve enough to win, Snowy Morning has been placed in three Grade Two chases on his last three starts and definitely has the touch of class required to emulate former stablemate Hedgehunter.
So they are my five against the field, with my fingers firmly crossed that the trends hold true once again this year...
Whatever horse you choose to back, good luck!
Wednesday 31 March 2010
Sunday 28 March 2010
The Betting
Despite Mon Mome's success at an astounding 100/1 last year (quite bizarre given that the same horse had started 9/2 favourite for the Welsh National just four months before), it is actually a myth that big priced horses regularly win the National.
Although ten winners in the last 40 years have surprised at odds of 20/1 or bigger (and I certainly wouldn't discount any horse based on odds alone), since 1990 no fewer than 14 winners have started beween 7/1 and 16/1 - all of them featuring in the first ten in the betting. This includes four winning favourites in the last 15 years (Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die, all at 7/1).
The truth is, since the National fences were made easier the results have been more predictable - and generally speaking most of the winners in the last 20 years had the form and class to be relatively well fancied in the betting.
As things stand, the following ten horses are likely to head the market come the big day (current average odds in brackets):
Big Fella Thanks (8/1)
Mon Mome (11/1)
The Package (14/1)
Snowy Morning (14/1)
Black Apalachi (14/1)
Abor Supreme (16/1)
Tricky Trickster (16/1)
Niche Market (16/1)
Character Building (16/1)
State of Play (16/1)
Interestingly, most of these would be rejected on the trends. Arbor Supreme, nicely weighted on 10st 8lb, with proven stamina and decent form this season is arguably the most interesting of the three horses that qualify on every count.
The likely favourite Big Fella Thanks would also make the cut, but only just - although he's only 8 years old and a second season chaser he's had 10 runs over fences now, including in this race last year (when finishing sixth) and a number of other competitive senior handicaps in the last 15 months.
Big Fella Thanks will also have the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the saddle, which is a big plus (see The Ruby Factor section for more details). In stark contrast, Champion Jockey Tony McCoy has a terrible record in the race (he has completed the course on only 5 out of his 14 rides to date, although he has finished third on three occasions).
Snowy Morning is something of a Grand National veteran; he finished third behind Comply or Die in 2008 before finishing down the field in 9th behind Mon Mome in 2009. He was carrying 11st 8lbs last year - so he looks to be well treated on just 10st 13lb this time.
However, there are good reasons for avoiding most of the other horses on this list.
Mon Mome is a previous winner - and too high in the weights on 11 stone 7lb. The two Becher Chase winners, Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi will also have to carry too much weight at 11 stone 6lb.
The Package and Tricky Trickster, although likely types for the National, are both still just seven years old and do not have the requisite experience over fences.
Last year's Irish National winner, Niche Market, would have to come into the reckoning too, although his surprise run in the Aon Chase (finishing a short head runner up) has nudged his weight up a little high at 11 stone 4lb.
Last year's fourth State Of Play would definitely be another for the shortlist at 10 stone 11lb if it weren't for the fact that he's only had one outing so far this season - and that was back in November (pulled up behind Denman in the Hennessy).
So if the betting counts for anything, when combined with all the other trends Big Fella Thanks, Abor Supreme and Snowy Morning would be the strongest contenders on this list.
Although ten winners in the last 40 years have surprised at odds of 20/1 or bigger (and I certainly wouldn't discount any horse based on odds alone), since 1990 no fewer than 14 winners have started beween 7/1 and 16/1 - all of them featuring in the first ten in the betting. This includes four winning favourites in the last 15 years (Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die, all at 7/1).
The truth is, since the National fences were made easier the results have been more predictable - and generally speaking most of the winners in the last 20 years had the form and class to be relatively well fancied in the betting.
As things stand, the following ten horses are likely to head the market come the big day (current average odds in brackets):
Big Fella Thanks (8/1)
Mon Mome (11/1)
The Package (14/1)
Snowy Morning (14/1)
Black Apalachi (14/1)
Abor Supreme (16/1)
Tricky Trickster (16/1)
Niche Market (16/1)
Character Building (16/1)
State of Play (16/1)
Interestingly, most of these would be rejected on the trends. Arbor Supreme, nicely weighted on 10st 8lb, with proven stamina and decent form this season is arguably the most interesting of the three horses that qualify on every count.
The likely favourite Big Fella Thanks would also make the cut, but only just - although he's only 8 years old and a second season chaser he's had 10 runs over fences now, including in this race last year (when finishing sixth) and a number of other competitive senior handicaps in the last 15 months.
Big Fella Thanks will also have the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the saddle, which is a big plus (see The Ruby Factor section for more details). In stark contrast, Champion Jockey Tony McCoy has a terrible record in the race (he has completed the course on only 5 out of his 14 rides to date, although he has finished third on three occasions).
Snowy Morning is something of a Grand National veteran; he finished third behind Comply or Die in 2008 before finishing down the field in 9th behind Mon Mome in 2009. He was carrying 11st 8lbs last year - so he looks to be well treated on just 10st 13lb this time.
However, there are good reasons for avoiding most of the other horses on this list.
Mon Mome is a previous winner - and too high in the weights on 11 stone 7lb. The two Becher Chase winners, Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi will also have to carry too much weight at 11 stone 6lb.
The Package and Tricky Trickster, although likely types for the National, are both still just seven years old and do not have the requisite experience over fences.
Last year's Irish National winner, Niche Market, would have to come into the reckoning too, although his surprise run in the Aon Chase (finishing a short head runner up) has nudged his weight up a little high at 11 stone 4lb.
Last year's fourth State Of Play would definitely be another for the shortlist at 10 stone 11lb if it weren't for the fact that he's only had one outing so far this season - and that was back in November (pulled up behind Denman in the Hennessy).
So if the betting counts for anything, when combined with all the other trends Big Fella Thanks, Abor Supreme and Snowy Morning would be the strongest contenders on this list.
Saturday 27 March 2010
The Ruby Factor
There is one jockey whose record in the Grand National stands head and shoulder above all others...
Ruby Walsh is by far and away the most successful jockey currently riding, having won the big race twice on board Papillon (2000) and Hedgehunter (2005). He has also finished second, third and fourth (twice) - and perhaps even more remarkably has completed the Grand National course on all bar one of his nine rides to date.
But his riding skill over marathon distances is not limited to Aintree either... Walsh is the only current jockey to have completed the National 'Grand Slam' with a total of four victories in the Scottish, Welsh and Irish equivalents to his name.
It's not surprising then to see his chosen mount for this year's race, Big Fella Thanks, head the market (currently 8/1 favourite).
Big Fella Thanks is the form horse, based on his win last time out at Doncaster - and the horse also finished sixth in last year's Grand National when only a novice. But Walsh would also have had the choice to ride Tricky Trickster or any of the Willie Mullins trained horses, so this has to be a tip in itself. The combination of these two is sure to see them go off a short price come the big day.
The only thing that would temper my enthusiasm is the awful record of the champion trainer Paul Nicholls in the Grand National. Only 25% of his runners have completed the course (11 from 44), with Royal Auclair (2nd in 2005) and My Will (3rd in 2009) his only finishers in the first four places.
Ruby Walsh is by far and away the most successful jockey currently riding, having won the big race twice on board Papillon (2000) and Hedgehunter (2005). He has also finished second, third and fourth (twice) - and perhaps even more remarkably has completed the Grand National course on all bar one of his nine rides to date.
But his riding skill over marathon distances is not limited to Aintree either... Walsh is the only current jockey to have completed the National 'Grand Slam' with a total of four victories in the Scottish, Welsh and Irish equivalents to his name.
It's not surprising then to see his chosen mount for this year's race, Big Fella Thanks, head the market (currently 8/1 favourite).
Big Fella Thanks is the form horse, based on his win last time out at Doncaster - and the horse also finished sixth in last year's Grand National when only a novice. But Walsh would also have had the choice to ride Tricky Trickster or any of the Willie Mullins trained horses, so this has to be a tip in itself. The combination of these two is sure to see them go off a short price come the big day.
The only thing that would temper my enthusiasm is the awful record of the champion trainer Paul Nicholls in the Grand National. Only 25% of his runners have completed the course (11 from 44), with Royal Auclair (2nd in 2005) and My Will (3rd in 2009) his only finishers in the first four places.
Wednesday 24 March 2010
Handicap Snips
The weights for the Grand National are framed in early February, so it's well worth looking out for horses that are potentially 'well in'. In other words, those that have shown improved form subsequently and would otherwise be higher in the handicap...
Lord Gyllene and Rough Quest are just two examples of horses that exploited a lenient handicap mark to win the Grand National, so these are always types that could buck the trends.
This year look out for the following:
Vic Venturi - 1st in the Bobbyjo Chase (would be raised by 8lb)
Black Apalachi - 2nd in the Bobbyjo Chase (would be raised by 5lb)
Big Fella Thanks - 1st in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury (would be raised by 5lb)
Arbor Supreme - 2nd in a Handicap Chase at Leopardstown (would be raised by 5lb)
Eric's Charm - 1st in a Veteran's Handicap Chase at Newbury (would be raised by 6lb)
The Package - 2nd in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival (would be raised by 6lb)
Lord Gyllene and Rough Quest are just two examples of horses that exploited a lenient handicap mark to win the Grand National, so these are always types that could buck the trends.
This year look out for the following:
Vic Venturi - 1st in the Bobbyjo Chase (would be raised by 8lb)
Black Apalachi - 2nd in the Bobbyjo Chase (would be raised by 5lb)
Big Fella Thanks - 1st in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury (would be raised by 5lb)
Arbor Supreme - 2nd in a Handicap Chase at Leopardstown (would be raised by 5lb)
Eric's Charm - 1st in a Veteran's Handicap Chase at Newbury (would be raised by 6lb)
The Package - 2nd in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival (would be raised by 6lb)
Sunday 21 March 2010
National Form
As highlighted previously, many races now feature the ‘National’ tag – but it’s worth looking out for, as it shows that the horse will appreciate marathon distances. All of the last 13 winners had at least run in a ‘National’ race, with eleven of these either winning or finishing placed (i.e. in the first three). We’ll also include Becher Chase form (run over the same famous Aintree fences) as it is so relevant to the Grand National.
The following horses running in this year's race all have proven form in these long distance events:
Mon Mome - winner of the 2009 Grand National
Comply or Die - winner of the 2008 Grand National (2nd in 2009)
Black Apalachi - winner of the 2008 Becher Chase
Vic Venturi - winner of the 2009 Becher Chase
Niche Market - winner of the 2009 Irish National
Tricky Trickster - winner of 2009 4m NH Chase
Cloudy Lane - winner of the 2009 Peter Marsh Chase
Dream Alliance - winner of the 2009 Welsh National
My Will - 3rd in the 2009 Grand National
State of Play - winner of the 2006 Hennessy (4th in 2009)
Snowy Morning - 3rd in 2008 Grand National
King John's Castle - 2nd in 2008 Grand National
Eric's Charm - winner of 2009 London National
Hello Bud - winner of 2009 Scottish National
Cerium - 5th in 2009 Grand National
I would be confident in predicting that the winner of this year’s race will come from one of the above named horses.
Another fascinating statistic is that ten out of the last 13 Grand National winners had run in either the Irish or Welsh equivalent. This would include the following horses:
Welsh National
Dream Alliance - won in 2009 (pulled up in 2007)
Ballyfitz - 5th in 2009
Nozic - 9th in 2009
Hello Bud - unseated rider in 2009
Flintoff - pulled up in 2009
Joe Lively - 6th in 2008
Mon Mome - 8th in 2008, 2nd in 2006
Comply or Die - pulled up in 2005
Irish National
Niche Market - won in 2009
Vic Venturi - 8th in 2009, 9th in 2008
Arbor Supreme - 14th in 2009
Preists Leap - 7th in 2008
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see one or more of these horses run big races this year, particularly those that finished in the frame – the bottom line is proven stamina is probably the overriding consideration when attempting to find the Grand National winner.
Remember, last year's winner Mon Mome had finished 2nd in a Welsh National, while Silver Birch was a former Welsh National winner and Numbersixvalverde won the Irish National the year before his GN victory. That's three winners in the last four years that have come out of either the Irish or Welsh National, while even Comply or Die had run at Chepstow earlier in his career prior to Aintree success.
The following horses running in this year's race all have proven form in these long distance events:
Mon Mome - winner of the 2009 Grand National
Comply or Die - winner of the 2008 Grand National (2nd in 2009)
Black Apalachi - winner of the 2008 Becher Chase
Vic Venturi - winner of the 2009 Becher Chase
Niche Market - winner of the 2009 Irish National
Tricky Trickster - winner of 2009 4m NH Chase
Cloudy Lane - winner of the 2009 Peter Marsh Chase
Dream Alliance - winner of the 2009 Welsh National
My Will - 3rd in the 2009 Grand National
State of Play - winner of the 2006 Hennessy (4th in 2009)
Snowy Morning - 3rd in 2008 Grand National
King John's Castle - 2nd in 2008 Grand National
Eric's Charm - winner of 2009 London National
Hello Bud - winner of 2009 Scottish National
Cerium - 5th in 2009 Grand National
I would be confident in predicting that the winner of this year’s race will come from one of the above named horses.
Another fascinating statistic is that ten out of the last 13 Grand National winners had run in either the Irish or Welsh equivalent. This would include the following horses:
Welsh National
Dream Alliance - won in 2009 (pulled up in 2007)
Ballyfitz - 5th in 2009
Nozic - 9th in 2009
Hello Bud - unseated rider in 2009
Flintoff - pulled up in 2009
Joe Lively - 6th in 2008
Mon Mome - 8th in 2008, 2nd in 2006
Comply or Die - pulled up in 2005
Irish National
Niche Market - won in 2009
Vic Venturi - 8th in 2009, 9th in 2008
Arbor Supreme - 14th in 2009
Preists Leap - 7th in 2008
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see one or more of these horses run big races this year, particularly those that finished in the frame – the bottom line is proven stamina is probably the overriding consideration when attempting to find the Grand National winner.
Remember, last year's winner Mon Mome had finished 2nd in a Welsh National, while Silver Birch was a former Welsh National winner and Numbersixvalverde won the Irish National the year before his GN victory. That's three winners in the last four years that have come out of either the Irish or Welsh National, while even Comply or Die had run at Chepstow earlier in his career prior to Aintree success.
Career Form
Another factor that we still need to consider is class. While we need to go with a horse on a light weight at the lower end of the rating scale (ideally between 136 and 149), he still needs to have proven ability with a Class 1 or a Class 2 chase win to his name.
As you would expect in a race of this calibre, most horses in the top two thirds of the handicap still qualify, but using this criteria still enables us to eliminate the following three horses towards the bottom end:
King John's Castle (2nd in this race in 2008)
Palypso De Creek
Flintoff
As you would expect in a race of this calibre, most horses in the top two thirds of the handicap still qualify, but using this criteria still enables us to eliminate the following three horses towards the bottom end:
King John's Castle (2nd in this race in 2008)
Palypso De Creek
Flintoff
Season Runs
While we’re being ruthless, we also have to dismiss any other horse with too few or too many runs this season – even if they have good form this season. The theory being that you need to have proven recent fitness to last the distance in the National – but too many miles on the clock in the current campaign and there may not be enough petrol left in the tank.
Even allowing for the bad weather at the start of this year, you want a horse that has had more than two runs this season - with the most recent preferably within the last 49 days.
The following horses have had fewer than three runs and are therefore rejected on this basis:
Black Apalachi
Comply or Die
Nozic (not run for 103 days)
Pablo Du Charmil
Character Building
State of Play (not run for 133 days)
Flintoff (not run for 103 days)
Cerium
We can also reject the following horses that haven't been seen on-course in the last two months:
Maljimar - only 3 runs, not for 120 days
Irish Raptor - only 3 runs, not for 126 days
Royal Rosa - not run for 80 days
(In addition to Nozic, State of Play and Flintoff again)
Even allowing for the bad weather at the start of this year, you want a horse that has had more than two runs this season - with the most recent preferably within the last 49 days.
The following horses have had fewer than three runs and are therefore rejected on this basis:
Black Apalachi
Comply or Die
Nozic (not run for 103 days)
Pablo Du Charmil
Character Building
State of Play (not run for 133 days)
Flintoff (not run for 103 days)
Cerium
We can also reject the following horses that haven't been seen on-course in the last two months:
Maljimar - only 3 runs, not for 120 days
Irish Raptor - only 3 runs, not for 126 days
Royal Rosa - not run for 80 days
(In addition to Nozic, State of Play and Flintoff again)
Season Form
The next statistic we’ll apply is recent form. The winner should have finished in the first three at least once during the current campaign, preferably with a win to their name – and ideally with between four and six runs this season.
Of the last 20 winners all bar two had finished in the first three during the course of the season (and this statistic actually applies to all of the last 12 winners). In fact, in the last 12 years there have been exactly 100 runners who failed to reach the first three in their last four starts. None of them won the big race - and only one finished in the first three places.
This year several horses come to Aintree with pretty poor form to their name (including some of the better fancied contenders), so the following can be discounted:
Comply or Die - 00
Nozic - 69
Pablo Du Charmil - 4F
Preists Leap - 780U0
Character Building - 00
State of Play - P
King John's Castle - 7980
Irish Raptor - 4U5
Mr Pointment - 0
Flintoff - P
Cerium - 8
Comply or Die has failed to capture the same form that he was in prior to winning in 2008 and has it all to prove, even though he's better off at the weights when finishing runner-up last year.
State of Play and Character Building are both well fancied by connections and laid out for this race - but you have to take an awful lot on trust if you're going to back them.
State of Play finished fourth last year - and has previously won a Hennessy Gold Cup so on his best form would have a great chance, but it has to be a worry that he hasn't been seen on a course since being pulled up in the 2009 Hennessy back in November.
Character Building, a winner at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival, has been purchased this week by the owners of Cheveley Park Stud and will run in the colours of Patricia Thompson. They did exactly the same three days before the 1992 National when Party Politics landed the big race, so it will be interesting to see if lightning can strike twice! Nina Carberry (sister of Paul Carberry, who won the race on Bobbyjo in 1999) has been booked to ride.
Of the last 20 winners all bar two had finished in the first three during the course of the season (and this statistic actually applies to all of the last 12 winners). In fact, in the last 12 years there have been exactly 100 runners who failed to reach the first three in their last four starts. None of them won the big race - and only one finished in the first three places.
This year several horses come to Aintree with pretty poor form to their name (including some of the better fancied contenders), so the following can be discounted:
Comply or Die - 00
Nozic - 69
Pablo Du Charmil - 4F
Preists Leap - 780U0
Character Building - 00
State of Play - P
King John's Castle - 7980
Irish Raptor - 4U5
Mr Pointment - 0
Flintoff - P
Cerium - 8
Comply or Die has failed to capture the same form that he was in prior to winning in 2008 and has it all to prove, even though he's better off at the weights when finishing runner-up last year.
State of Play and Character Building are both well fancied by connections and laid out for this race - but you have to take an awful lot on trust if you're going to back them.
State of Play finished fourth last year - and has previously won a Hennessy Gold Cup so on his best form would have a great chance, but it has to be a worry that he hasn't been seen on a course since being pulled up in the 2009 Hennessy back in November.
Character Building, a winner at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival, has been purchased this week by the owners of Cheveley Park Stud and will run in the colours of Patricia Thompson. They did exactly the same three days before the 1992 National when Party Politics landed the big race, so it will be interesting to see if lightning can strike twice! Nina Carberry (sister of Paul Carberry, who won the race on Bobbyjo in 1999) has been booked to ride.
Staying Power
The next important factor we’ll consider is stamina. It is essential that horses have proven staying power in order to get through the gruelling marathon four and a half mile trip of the National. They must therefore have already won over at least three miles (24 furlongs) during their career in order to demonstrate that they have the stamina to last home.
This key statistic applied to every single winner since Gay Trip in 1970. In fact, only Red Marauder (2000) and Binderee (2003) had not scored over a minimum of three miles, one furlong (25 furlongs).
Over a third of this year's entries do not have winning form over this distance of at least three miles, one furlong:
Made In Taipan
Pablo Du Charmil
Ballyholland (winner of 3m point to point)
Preists Leap (winner at 3m)
Snowy Morning (winner at 3m as a novice)
King John's Castle
Conna Castle
Maljimar
Piraya
Palypso De Creek
Flintoff
Cerium
Royal Rosa (winner at 3m as a novice)
As there are relatively limited options available for staying chasers in Ireland, we won't eliminate the three listed above that won a Class 1 or Class 2 event over three miles in soft or heavy ground - as this as good as proves their staying power.
At the other end of the scale, the following horses have all won over marathon distances of over three and a half miles (longest win in brackets):
Mon Mome (4 miles, 4 furlongs)
Comply or Die (4 miles, 4 furlongs)
Niche Market (3 miles, 5 furlongs)
Tricky Trickster (4 miles)
Dream Alliance (3 miles, 5 furlongs)
Arbor Supreme (3 miles, 6 furlongs)
Hello Bud (4 miles, half a furlong)
Setting aside the two previous Grand National winners in this list that are too high in the weights (over 11 stone 4lb), there are four serious contenders here worthy of close consideration.
This includes last year's Irish National winner (Niche Market) and Scottish National winner (Hello Bud), as well as this season's Welsh National hero (Dream Alliance) and the long time ante post favourite Tricky Trickster, who won the 4 mile chase at the Cheltenham Festival by ten lengths last season and was a shock winner of the Aon Chase at Newbury in February.
This key statistic applied to every single winner since Gay Trip in 1970. In fact, only Red Marauder (2000) and Binderee (2003) had not scored over a minimum of three miles, one furlong (25 furlongs).
Over a third of this year's entries do not have winning form over this distance of at least three miles, one furlong:
Made In Taipan
Pablo Du Charmil
Ballyholland (winner of 3m point to point)
Preists Leap (winner at 3m)
Snowy Morning (winner at 3m as a novice)
King John's Castle
Conna Castle
Maljimar
Piraya
Palypso De Creek
Flintoff
Cerium
Royal Rosa (winner at 3m as a novice)
As there are relatively limited options available for staying chasers in Ireland, we won't eliminate the three listed above that won a Class 1 or Class 2 event over three miles in soft or heavy ground - as this as good as proves their staying power.
At the other end of the scale, the following horses have all won over marathon distances of over three and a half miles (longest win in brackets):
Mon Mome (4 miles, 4 furlongs)
Comply or Die (4 miles, 4 furlongs)
Niche Market (3 miles, 5 furlongs)
Tricky Trickster (4 miles)
Dream Alliance (3 miles, 5 furlongs)
Arbor Supreme (3 miles, 6 furlongs)
Hello Bud (4 miles, half a furlong)
Setting aside the two previous Grand National winners in this list that are too high in the weights (over 11 stone 4lb), there are four serious contenders here worthy of close consideration.
This includes last year's Irish National winner (Niche Market) and Scottish National winner (Hello Bud), as well as this season's Welsh National hero (Dream Alliance) and the long time ante post favourite Tricky Trickster, who won the 4 mile chase at the Cheltenham Festival by ten lengths last season and was a shock winner of the Aon Chase at Newbury in February.
Saturday 20 March 2010
Age and Experience
Applying the age trends is the next obvious way of eliminating some of the other runners. No horse aged seven (or below) has won the Grand National since Bogskar in 1940. Similarly, horses aged 13 and over have a poor record and are without a win since Sergeant Murphy in 1923.
The basic rule of thumb is that horses need experience to win a Grand National; therefore older horses tend to fare better. Novices, or even second season chasers, have a very poor record generally – and all winners of the National since Red Rum in the last three decades have had at least 10 races over fences before attempting the big one at Aintree.
It is even wise to exercise caution before backing horses aged eight – as only four horses have won this young in that time period, and only two since 1983.
The following seven year olds can therefore all safely be discounted:
Tricky Trickster
Piraya
The Package
Palypso De Creek
This includes a couple of well fancied contenders in the shape of Tricky Trickster, aimed at this race by Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls all season, and The Package, trained by David Pipe, who won this race with Comply or Die in 2008.
Tricky Trickster won at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival before disappointing in this year's Gold Cup, although his winning form in the Aon Chase would give him a great chance. The Package ran a much better prep race at the Festival, as he only failed by a head to win the William Hill Trophy, traditionally a decent trial for the Grand National. That was only his eighth race over fences, however, while Tricky Trickster has only had six runs over the larger obstacles, so their inexperience is likely to tell round Aintree.
History also tells us to avoid second season chasers in the Grand National (i.e. not a novice last season) if they still have fewer than 10 runs over fences, which would also include these two horses:
Made in Taipan
Backstage
At the other end of the scale there's just one 13 year old who could still make this year's field - the 2007 winner Silver Birch, who looks up against it now at this ripe old age. He has failed to show his old sparkle this season, most recently finishing well down the field in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival. He is one of the four reserves, so needs a horse to come out in the next 24 hours to get a run.
The basic rule of thumb is that horses need experience to win a Grand National; therefore older horses tend to fare better. Novices, or even second season chasers, have a very poor record generally – and all winners of the National since Red Rum in the last three decades have had at least 10 races over fences before attempting the big one at Aintree.
It is even wise to exercise caution before backing horses aged eight – as only four horses have won this young in that time period, and only two since 1983.
The following seven year olds can therefore all safely be discounted:
Tricky Trickster
Piraya
The Package
Palypso De Creek
This includes a couple of well fancied contenders in the shape of Tricky Trickster, aimed at this race by Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls all season, and The Package, trained by David Pipe, who won this race with Comply or Die in 2008.
Tricky Trickster won at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival before disappointing in this year's Gold Cup, although his winning form in the Aon Chase would give him a great chance. The Package ran a much better prep race at the Festival, as he only failed by a head to win the William Hill Trophy, traditionally a decent trial for the Grand National. That was only his eighth race over fences, however, while Tricky Trickster has only had six runs over the larger obstacles, so their inexperience is likely to tell round Aintree.
History also tells us to avoid second season chasers in the Grand National (i.e. not a novice last season) if they still have fewer than 10 runs over fences, which would also include these two horses:
Made in Taipan
Backstage
At the other end of the scale there's just one 13 year old who could still make this year's field - the 2007 winner Silver Birch, who looks up against it now at this ripe old age. He has failed to show his old sparkle this season, most recently finishing well down the field in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival. He is one of the four reserves, so needs a horse to come out in the next 24 hours to get a run.
Weight and Rating
According to the statistics at least, you can forget about the top horses in the handicap set to carry over 11 stone 1lbs. Hedgehunter is the only horse to have carried a weight over 11 stone (and only just, on 11 stone 1lb) to victory in the last 25 years.
To put this into some perspective, since 1984 a total of 103 horses have carried 11 stone 2lb or more - and all have failed. While there have been some notable weight carrying performances to run into a place (often by horses that have run well in the National before - for example, Suny Bay, Hedgehunter and Comply or Die) the fact remains that it is a mammoth task to have the stamina and ability to carry such a heavy burden over the marathon four and a half mile trip.
Coincidentally, all of the horses carrying 11 stone 1lb or over this year are rated 150 or above. There has been no winner rated above 149 since Rough Quest’s victory in 1996, therefore they are also all too high on that scale.
Combining these two facts enable us to discount the following 15 entries for this year's race:
Madison Du Berlais - 11st 10lb weight (158 rating)
Mon Mome - 11st 7lb (155)
Vic Venturi - 11st 6lb (154)
Black Apalachi - 11st 6lb (154)
Joe Lively - 11st 6lb (154)
Don't Push It - 11st 5lb (153)
Comply or Die - 11st 5lb (153)
Tricky Trickster - 11st 4lb (152)
Niche Market - 11st 4lb (152)
Made In Taipan - 11st 4lb (152)
Dream Alliance - 11st 3lb (151)
Cloudy Lane - 11st 3lb (151)
Nozic - 11st 3lb (151)
My Will - 11st 2lb (150)
Pablo du Charmil - 11st 2lb (150)
Unfortunately for us, this also includes many of the leading contenders according to the betting and recent form. Not only are we rejecting the winners of the past two Grand Nationals (Mon Mome and Comply or Die), but also 2009 Welsh National winner (Dream Alliance), the 2009 Irish National winner (Niche Market), the last two Becher Chase winners (Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi), the 2010 Aon Chase winner (Tricky Trickster) and last year's third placed horse (My Will).
Inevitably the classier horses feature at the top end of the handicap - but to encourage them to run, the handicapper has compressed the weights to give these horses a chance. It's only a matter of time therefore before another horse carries over 11 stone to victory, but I still think it takes a special one to lump so much weight around four and a half miles. For this reason, my own personal cut-off point is 11 stone 4lbs - no horse has carried above this weight to win the race since Corbiere in 1983.
Gone are the days when a third of the field would run from out of the handicap. In the last three years the bottom weight has been between 10st 4lb and 10st 7lb. It's likely to be the roughly the same this year - effectively making the race more of a limited handicap. For this reason trends followers are wise to allow an extra four pounds over the traditional 11 stone mark.
Mon Mome is well fancied to become the first back-to-back winner of the National since Red Rum in 1974, but he was an exceptional horse - sadly Mon Mome is not in the same class. He is now vying for favouritism after finishing 3rd in the Gold Cup, but with a weight of 11 stone 7lb realistically a place is the best he can hope for this year - especially after that stamina sapping effort in the mud at Cheltenham...
To put this into some perspective, since 1984 a total of 103 horses have carried 11 stone 2lb or more - and all have failed. While there have been some notable weight carrying performances to run into a place (often by horses that have run well in the National before - for example, Suny Bay, Hedgehunter and Comply or Die) the fact remains that it is a mammoth task to have the stamina and ability to carry such a heavy burden over the marathon four and a half mile trip.
Coincidentally, all of the horses carrying 11 stone 1lb or over this year are rated 150 or above. There has been no winner rated above 149 since Rough Quest’s victory in 1996, therefore they are also all too high on that scale.
Combining these two facts enable us to discount the following 15 entries for this year's race:
Madison Du Berlais - 11st 10lb weight (158 rating)
Mon Mome - 11st 7lb (155)
Vic Venturi - 11st 6lb (154)
Black Apalachi - 11st 6lb (154)
Joe Lively - 11st 6lb (154)
Don't Push It - 11st 5lb (153)
Comply or Die - 11st 5lb (153)
Tricky Trickster - 11st 4lb (152)
Niche Market - 11st 4lb (152)
Made In Taipan - 11st 4lb (152)
Dream Alliance - 11st 3lb (151)
Cloudy Lane - 11st 3lb (151)
Nozic - 11st 3lb (151)
My Will - 11st 2lb (150)
Pablo du Charmil - 11st 2lb (150)
Unfortunately for us, this also includes many of the leading contenders according to the betting and recent form. Not only are we rejecting the winners of the past two Grand Nationals (Mon Mome and Comply or Die), but also 2009 Welsh National winner (Dream Alliance), the 2009 Irish National winner (Niche Market), the last two Becher Chase winners (Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi), the 2010 Aon Chase winner (Tricky Trickster) and last year's third placed horse (My Will).
Inevitably the classier horses feature at the top end of the handicap - but to encourage them to run, the handicapper has compressed the weights to give these horses a chance. It's only a matter of time therefore before another horse carries over 11 stone to victory, but I still think it takes a special one to lump so much weight around four and a half miles. For this reason, my own personal cut-off point is 11 stone 4lbs - no horse has carried above this weight to win the race since Corbiere in 1983.
Gone are the days when a third of the field would run from out of the handicap. In the last three years the bottom weight has been between 10st 4lb and 10st 7lb. It's likely to be the roughly the same this year - effectively making the race more of a limited handicap. For this reason trends followers are wise to allow an extra four pounds over the traditional 11 stone mark.
Mon Mome is well fancied to become the first back-to-back winner of the National since Red Rum in 1974, but he was an exceptional horse - sadly Mon Mome is not in the same class. He is now vying for favouritism after finishing 3rd in the Gold Cup, but with a weight of 11 stone 7lb realistically a place is the best he can hope for this year - especially after that stamina sapping effort in the mud at Cheltenham...
The New Rules
Taking into account recent trends based on the winners of the past 20 years, the following statistics now apply:
• No horse has carried more than 11 stone 1lb to victory.
• All winners had an Official Rating of at between 136 and 154.
• All winners were aged 8 or older (only two 8YO & three 12YO).
• All bar one had winning form over 3 miles or more.
• All bar two had won a chase contested by 13 or more runners.
• 15 out of the 20 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
• The vast majority had form in one of the key trends races: the Irish, Scottish and Welsh Nationals or the Hennessy.
You could even go further when looking at just the last decade, when the following comments apply to every single winner since 1999:
• Officially rated 136 to 148
• Carried 11 stone 1lbs or less
• Aged between 8 and 12
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• Between four and six runs since August
• Won a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Chase
• Ran within the previous 49 days
• Had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form
On this last point, it is amazing to note that ten out of the last 13 Grand National winners had run in either the Irish or Welsh equivalent at some point in their careers... This is something we'll come back to later.
• No horse has carried more than 11 stone 1lb to victory.
• All winners had an Official Rating of at between 136 and 154.
• All winners were aged 8 or older (only two 8YO & three 12YO).
• All bar one had winning form over 3 miles or more.
• All bar two had won a chase contested by 13 or more runners.
• 15 out of the 20 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
• The vast majority had form in one of the key trends races: the Irish, Scottish and Welsh Nationals or the Hennessy.
You could even go further when looking at just the last decade, when the following comments apply to every single winner since 1999:
• Officially rated 136 to 148
• Carried 11 stone 1lbs or less
• Aged between 8 and 12
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• Between four and six runs since August
• Won a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Chase
• Ran within the previous 49 days
• Had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form
On this last point, it is amazing to note that ten out of the last 13 Grand National winners had run in either the Irish or Welsh equivalent at some point in their careers... This is something we'll come back to later.
The Old Rules
There were several basic rules that applied to every Grand National from Red Rum’s last victory in 1977 to Royal Athlete’s win in 1995. Horses to avoid included:
• The favourite
• Any horse starting at less than 10/1
• Any horse not in the first ten in the betting
• Any horse carrying the minimum weight of 10 stone
• Any horse carrying over 11 stone 4lbs
• Any foreign trained horse
• Any mare
• Previous winners
• Any horse aged under 8 or over 12
• Any horse that has not won over a minimum of 3 miles, 1 furlong
• Any horse that has not finished in the first three at some point during the season
• Any horse with less than 2 years chasing experience
A number of these statistics have no longer applied since 1995:
• Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter and Comply or Die all started favourite
• There have been six winners priced at 10/1 or less
• The Irish have dominated the National in recent years – winning six times since 1999
• Bobbyjo and Lord Gyllene won from out of the handicap
• Lord Gyllene and Binderee were only second season chasers
• Red Marauder and Bindaree had never won over further than 3 miles
In 2002 Bindaree became the lowest rated winner since Foinavon - and it’s this downgrading in the quality of winners that is the most significant trend.
Before Mon Mome's victory last year, the previous ten winners were all rated between 136 and 144 – just a narrow eight-pound band, providing further evidence of the decline in recent years. In fact, discount the highest of these Hedgehunter (144) and the lowest Bindaree (136) and eight of the winners since Bobbyjo in 1999 were rated between 138 and 142 – just a four pound margin. That’s quite an amazing statistic in itself.
Last year Mon Mome became the highest rated horse to win the race since 1999 - but even on a rating on 148 he would fit comfortably within the trends for the last 20 years. Only Minnehoma and Rough Quest have had a rating greater than 150 since Mr Frisk's victory in 1990.
The weight and rating statistics still remain by far the strongest pointer towards Grand National glory...
• The favourite
• Any horse starting at less than 10/1
• Any horse not in the first ten in the betting
• Any horse carrying the minimum weight of 10 stone
• Any horse carrying over 11 stone 4lbs
• Any foreign trained horse
• Any mare
• Previous winners
• Any horse aged under 8 or over 12
• Any horse that has not won over a minimum of 3 miles, 1 furlong
• Any horse that has not finished in the first three at some point during the season
• Any horse with less than 2 years chasing experience
A number of these statistics have no longer applied since 1995:
• Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter and Comply or Die all started favourite
• There have been six winners priced at 10/1 or less
• The Irish have dominated the National in recent years – winning six times since 1999
• Bobbyjo and Lord Gyllene won from out of the handicap
• Lord Gyllene and Binderee were only second season chasers
• Red Marauder and Bindaree had never won over further than 3 miles
In 2002 Bindaree became the lowest rated winner since Foinavon - and it’s this downgrading in the quality of winners that is the most significant trend.
Before Mon Mome's victory last year, the previous ten winners were all rated between 136 and 144 – just a narrow eight-pound band, providing further evidence of the decline in recent years. In fact, discount the highest of these Hedgehunter (144) and the lowest Bindaree (136) and eight of the winners since Bobbyjo in 1999 were rated between 138 and 142 – just a four pound margin. That’s quite an amazing statistic in itself.
Last year Mon Mome became the highest rated horse to win the race since 1999 - but even on a rating on 148 he would fit comfortably within the trends for the last 20 years. Only Minnehoma and Rough Quest have had a rating greater than 150 since Mr Frisk's victory in 1990.
The weight and rating statistics still remain by far the strongest pointer towards Grand National glory...
Introduction
I've decided to go all high-tech for 2010 to celebrate the 18th anniversary of my Grand National Bulletin! Rather than issue a long word document on e-mail on the eve of the big race, I'll be able to provide my analysis much earlier this year, then post further updates in the build-up to this year's event to give you the latest news and views from the ground.
For those of you who are new to this annual bulletin, the basic premise is that the Grand National is not (contrary to popular opinion) a lottery. There are a series of very strong trends that help you to pick the winner, or at least provide a shortlist of potential candidates.
By following a series of statistics this shortlist highlighted the winner of every Grand National from Party Politics in 1992 through to Earth Summit in 1998. Admittedly, it did go a bit awry from 1999 to 2002, but after these wilderness years and a few tweaks to the system it was well and truly back on track with six more winners from 2003 through to 2008.
So that's 12 winners in just 16 runnings of the big race - not a bad strike rate!
But what about last year, I hear you cry... Did you manage to point us in the right direction of 100/1 winner Mon Mome?! Sorry, no... Almost, but not quite.
However, that was my fault for trying to be too clever - for the first time last year I introduced a breeding category that excluded all French-bred horses. If I had stuck to my tried and tested system, then Mon Mome and the third placed My Will would have both made the final shortlist of just seven horses.
I was kicking myself repeatedly after the race as all of the other statistics pointed firmly to Mon Mome's chances:
Age - 9
Weight - 11 stone
Rating - 148
Chase runs - 24
3 mile + wins - 4
Season runs - 6
Previous run - 21 days
National form - 10th in Grand National, 9th in Scottish National and 8th in Welsh National (all in 2008), 8th in the Midlands National (also 2nd in Welsh National in 2006)
In other words, apart from this one spurious statistic about breeding he ticked all of the right boxes. In fact Mon Mome had actually started favourite for the Welsh National just four months earlier, so he was certainly not a no-hoper. The real question is how the horse was allowed to go off at 100/1!
So now we have to attempt to solve this year's puzzle...
As usual we'll apply all of the trends and statistics to get to a shortlist of potential winners. However, as this bulletin is published earlier this year there are still 75 horses entered - and a maximum of only 40 can run. There is no chance that the bottom 15 horses will get in, and the cut off point is likely to be around 10st 4lb or 10st 5lb.
All pages will therefore be updated on Monday 5th April when the five day declarations are through. I will also post the full list of runners and riders etc. at this point.
Happy reading - and good luck!
For those of you who are new to this annual bulletin, the basic premise is that the Grand National is not (contrary to popular opinion) a lottery. There are a series of very strong trends that help you to pick the winner, or at least provide a shortlist of potential candidates.
By following a series of statistics this shortlist highlighted the winner of every Grand National from Party Politics in 1992 through to Earth Summit in 1998. Admittedly, it did go a bit awry from 1999 to 2002, but after these wilderness years and a few tweaks to the system it was well and truly back on track with six more winners from 2003 through to 2008.
So that's 12 winners in just 16 runnings of the big race - not a bad strike rate!
But what about last year, I hear you cry... Did you manage to point us in the right direction of 100/1 winner Mon Mome?! Sorry, no... Almost, but not quite.
However, that was my fault for trying to be too clever - for the first time last year I introduced a breeding category that excluded all French-bred horses. If I had stuck to my tried and tested system, then Mon Mome and the third placed My Will would have both made the final shortlist of just seven horses.
I was kicking myself repeatedly after the race as all of the other statistics pointed firmly to Mon Mome's chances:
Age - 9
Weight - 11 stone
Rating - 148
Chase runs - 24
3 mile + wins - 4
Season runs - 6
Previous run - 21 days
National form - 10th in Grand National, 9th in Scottish National and 8th in Welsh National (all in 2008), 8th in the Midlands National (also 2nd in Welsh National in 2006)
In other words, apart from this one spurious statistic about breeding he ticked all of the right boxes. In fact Mon Mome had actually started favourite for the Welsh National just four months earlier, so he was certainly not a no-hoper. The real question is how the horse was allowed to go off at 100/1!
So now we have to attempt to solve this year's puzzle...
As usual we'll apply all of the trends and statistics to get to a shortlist of potential winners. However, as this bulletin is published earlier this year there are still 75 horses entered - and a maximum of only 40 can run. There is no chance that the bottom 15 horses will get in, and the cut off point is likely to be around 10st 4lb or 10st 5lb.
All pages will therefore be updated on Monday 5th April when the five day declarations are through. I will also post the full list of runners and riders etc. at this point.
Happy reading - and good luck!
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