1. Only 12 favourites won last century – and only six since 1960 – although four winners since 1996 have started favourite (Rough Quest in 1996, Earth Summit in 1998 and Hedgehunter in 2005, Comply or Die in 2008, all at 7/1).
2. Since 1989 14 of the last 20 winners have started between 7/1 and 16/1, with all of these featuring in the first eight of the betting.
3. Only nine winners have started at less than 10/1 since 1961 – the four horses named above, West Tip (1986), Grittar (1982), L’Escargot (1975) and Red Rum (twice, in 1973 and 1977). The shortest priced winner in the last century was Poethlyn at 11/4 in 1919, but no horse has won at odds shorter than 7/1 since L’Escargot in 1975.
4. Five horses have won at 100/1 – last year’s winner Mon Mome became the first to score at that price since Foinavon in 1967; the others are Caughoo in 1947, Gregalach in 1929 and Tipperary Tim in 1928 (when only two finished).
5. The trend for ratings has shifted downwards in recent times, with 17 of the last 20 winners rated between 136 and 149. Nine of the last ten winners were rated between 136 and 144.
6. Since 1989, 15 of the 20 winners carried a weight of between 10 stone 4lbs and 10 stone 12lbs – just an eight-pound margin. All of the last 25 winners carried 11st 1lbs or less.
7. In the last thirty years, only three winners have carried over 11 stone to victory – before Hedgehunter’s victory on 11st 1lbs in 2005, the last to do so was Corbiere in 1983 (with 11st 4lbs). Only Red Rum has succeeded with top weight since 1936.
8. Only 13 horses have been placed carrying more than 11 stone in the last 16 years – out of a possible total of 64 this represents a strike rate of just 20%.
9. In the last 24 Nationals, just 19 out of the 96 placed horses have been from out of the handicap (i.e. carrying 10 stone or less). In fact, in the last nine years no horse with the minimum weight has finished in the first four (all horses in handicap for last 5 years).
10. Since 1969, only four horses have won carrying the minimum weight of 10 stone (and only nine in whole of the last century); Rubstic (1979), Little Polvier (1989), Lord Gyllene (1997) and Bobbyjo (1999) all won from out of the handicap.
11. While recent winning form is not essential, of the last 21 winners all bar two finished in the first three at some point in the season before running in the Grand National – and all bar seven of the last 31 winners had won a race the same season.
12. Previous National winners have a poor record, with only Red Rum successful more than once since 1936. Since 1977 30 National winners have attempted a second win and all have failed. In fact, there were only two dual winners in the 20th Century – the other being Reynoldstown.
13. Several winners have gone on to be placed in subsequent years (e.g. Gay Trip, Corbiere, West Tip, Party Politics, Papillon, Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter and Comply or Die).
14. Horses who have previously fallen in the National can still go on to win in later years; e.g. West Tip (‘86), Little Polvier (‘89), Royal Athlete (‘95), Red Marauder (’01), Hedgehunter (’05) and Silver Birch (’07).
15. Horses that have run well round Aintree tend to do so again; Red Alligator, L’Escargot and Amberleigh House won after being placed previously, while last year’s winner Mon Mome was 10th in 2008. Eyecatcher, Rough and Tumble, Greasepaint, Durham Edition, Suny Bay, Blowing Wind and Clan Royal were all placed more than once.
16. Only four horses aged eight have won the race since 1970: Red Rum in 1973, Corbiere in 1983, Party Politics in 1992 and Bindaree in 2002. In other words, only once every 10 years. A seven year old has not won the National since 1940 and a six year old has not won since Ally Sloper in 1915.
17. Older (and therefore more experienced) horses tend to fare better; in the last 34 years, all bar three victories have gone to horses aged between 9 and 12.
18. Recent history favours horses aged nine or ten, accounting for ten of the 13 victories since 1996. Eight, eleven and twelve year olds have only one win apiece. No horse aged 13 or over has won since Sergeant Murphy in 1923.
19. It is another myth that 2½ mile specialists do well in the National. Every winner since Gay Trip in 1970 had previous winning form over three miles. 21 of the last 24 winners had all scored victories over at least 3m 1f.
20. The winner normally has two season’s chasing experience (i.e. not a novice the previous season). Lord Gyllene and Bindaree are recent exceptions, but the former had also raced over fences in New Zealand. The last novice to win was Mr What in 1958.
21. The best trial races have been the Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury), Welsh National (Chepstow), Irish National (Fairyhouse), Scottish National (Ayr), Blue Square Gold Cup and Peter Marsh Chase (Haydock). Eight winners of the Grand National since 1983 have run in the Hennessy (4 placed, 4 unplaced).
22. Golden Miller (1934) is the only horse to have completed the Gold Cup and Grand National double in the same year – 16 others have tried and failed. L’Escargot emulated this feat, but only at his 4th attempt (3 years after victory at Cheltenham).
23. Only one horse placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (i.e. 1st, 2nd or 3rd) has gone on to win the National in the same year since the war (Rough Quest in 1996).
24. Running in the Gold Cup is not necessarily a barrier to success, with unplaced horses Grittar, Rhyme N’ Reason and Miinnehoma all also following up with a win at Aintree.
25. While only twelve Irish-trained horses have won the National since the war this includes six of the last nine winners – Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Monty’s Pass (2003), Hedgehunter (2005), Numbersixvalverde (2006) and Silver Birch (2007). Before this, they had a 24-year barren period, when 121 Irish runners came to Aintree and all lost. In fact, from 1976 to 1998 only six Irish horses finished in the first three.
26. Every foreign-trained winner in the past 30 years had previously scored over British fences. There has not been a French winner of the race since 1867 – and only one French bred horse has won since 1909 (Mon Mome last year). In the last twelve years 102 French bred horses have taken part in the National, producing one winner and three runners-up – Clan Royal, Encore en Peu and Mely Moss.
27. Having trial races over hurdles is an increasingly popular route to take, as proven by ten of the last 30 winners; Rubstic (1979), Corbiere (1983), Royal Athlete (1995), Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Monty’s Pass (2003), Hedgehunter (2005), Numbersixvalverde (2006), Silver Birch (2007) and Mon Mome (2009).
28. The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951 and only two grey horses have ever won the National – The Lamb in 1868 and Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
29. Ruby Walsh is the most successful jockey currently riding (two wins, with Papillon and Hedgehunter, a second, a third and two fourths). He has completed the course on all bar one of his nine rides to date – and has also won the Scottish, Irish and Welsh Nationals.
30. Champion Jockey Tony McCoy has not enjoyed the best of luck in the race, with no wins from his 14 rides (completing the course on only five occasions), while Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls has no wins from 44 runners (and only 25% of these horses completing the race).
About Me
- DizzyJB
- I have been obsessed with the Grand National ever since Aldaniti was my first winner in 1981, aged nine. This annual preview has actually been going since 1992, long before blogs and social media, proudly boasting a strike rate of over 60% from the final shortlist until 2008 (although that's dropped to 50% in the last decade!). Enjoy reading this year's edition, but bet on my tips at your peril - they come with all of the necessary caveats and wealth warnings. If you do decide to have a flutter good luck!