The Shortlist

OK, so most of you will probably skip all of the preamble and head straight to this section... This has been updated now that the final field is known.

At the 48-hour declaration stage the following 11 horses (out of a total of 40 runners) would qualify on the trends:

Ballyholland
Beat The Boys
Can't Buy Time
Snowy Morning
Big Fella Thanks
Ellerslie George
Ballyfitz
Eric's Charm
Ollie Magern
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud

If we're ruthless we can thin this out a bit further...

Ballyholland does not have a senior win over a minimum of three miles plus, while Ballyfitz does not have a senior win over fences (just novice chases and hurdles).

You could also make a strong case for getting rid of the two veterans, Eric's Charm and Ollie Magern on the basis of their age (the last two haven't won a race since 2007 and 2008 respectively), but I made the same mistake in dismissing the chances of Amberleigh House a few years back so they still have to be included. Eric's Charm in particular has looked rejuvenated this season and won the London National at Sandown in December.

If you overlay the key statistic relating to experience in the Irish or Welsh National (10 of the last 13 winners), then only Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme and Hello Bud tick this all important box. If you add in those that have experience in the National itself (5 of the last 10 winners), then Can't Buy Time, Snowy Morning and Big Fella Thanks would also be included.

Taking all of this into account, the following five horses would be on my personal shortlist as the strongest contenders to win this year's National:

Can't Buy Time
Snowy Morning
Big Fella Thanks
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud

Although there have been notable gambles on the top four in recent weeks, you can still get juicy prices about the last name on this list. Hello Bud won last year's Scottish National (adding to his victories in the Somerset and Sussex Nationals). For some bizarre reason you can still obtain 50/1 in places - an absolute each way steal if he takes to the Aintree fences as he's guaranteed to stay all day.

It's interesting that Hello Bud and two other horses on the qualifiers above (Ballyfitz and Ollie Magern) are all saddled by Gold Cup winning trainer Nigel Twiston Davies, who has enjoyed a tremendous season so far and has already won the National twice with Earth Summit and Bindaree. While he fancies the chances of last year's Topham Chase winner Irish Rapter (on 10st 7lb, but the horse has had his problems and hasn't raced for 127 days), Hello Bud on 10st 6lb looks a more likely sort to me.

Although Hello Bud has failed to sparkle so far this season and was pulled up in December's Welsh National, he may well be a spring horse. Despite being 12 years old now if the ground is reasonably good he would have a great chance.

But you still have to respect the other horses on this list, three of which are eight year olds and therefore still likely to show improvement:

Big Fella Thanks is looking to give champion trainer Paul Nicholls his first win in the race, but has the best National rider Ruby Walsh on board. The horse won the Skybet Chase at Doncaster over three miles last season and showed his wellbeing last time out when landing the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury over a shorter trip. He finished 6th in this race last year when still only seven years old, so the only niggling doubt has to be whether he truly stays this marathon distance.

Like Big Fella Thanks, Can't Buy Time just squeezes in on the trends. He is is set to carry 10st 13lb and despite being another 8 year old has had 13 runs over fences, including winning a Grade Three event at Cheltenham this season and the Masters Chase at Sandown last year. His last novice run was back in October 2008, so I think he definitely has to enter calculations...

Can't Buy Time fell in last year's National when still only a seven year old, but that did not stop the likes of West Tip, Little Polvier, Royal Athlete, Red Marauder, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch returning to win the big race the following year.

The recent gamble on Arbor Supreme has come out of nowhere, which is a shame for trends followers as he was available at 25/1 just last weekend. He is trained by Willie Mullins, who scored with Hedgehunter in this race five years ago. Nicely weighted on 10st 8lb, apart from his age he is bang in there on the trends. He has wins over 3m 5f and 3m 6f and finished a good second last time out in a 16 runner handicap at Leopardstown.

19 year old Paul Townend gets the ride on Arbor Supreme (he finished 11th on Irish Invader at his first attempt last year), but don't let his inexperience of the big Aintree fences put you off - in the last ten years Ruby Walsh, Niall Madden and Liam Treadwell all won the National on their first rides in the race, while Robbie Power and Graham Lee both won at the second time of asking.

Willie Mullins also trains Snowy Morning, who finished third in this race two years ago and 9th last year. While he is far from confident that the horse can improve enough to win, Snowy Morning has been placed in three Grade Two chases on his last three starts and definitely has the touch of class required to emulate former stablemate Hedgehunter.

So they are my five against the field, with my fingers firmly crossed that the trends hold true once again this year...

Whatever horse you choose to back, good luck!