RP 10 Year Trends

Here's a copy of the ten year trends published in Saturday's Racing Post - very similar to my own system as you'd expect...

Last year’s winner Mon Mome may have started at 100-1, but he matched all but the first-timers key trend…

Age of horse.
Look for a horse aged between eight and 12.
Number of winners in the last ten runnings that fitted this profile: 10/10

Stamina.
Go for a horse that has won over at least three miles during their career 10/10

Weight.
History shows that horses carrying big weights struggle to win, so look at the weight your horse is carrying and concentrate in particular on horses carrying no more than 11st 1lb. 10/10

Experience.
Horses need to have run at least ten times over fences. 10/10 (eight between 10 and 24).

Official Rating.
Look for horses with an OR (Official Rating) of between 136 and 148. 10/10

Season Runs
Between four and six runs since the start of August. 10/10

Season Form.
At least one top-three finish in the last three runs. 10/10

One win.
Trends show that you should be looking for a horse that has won - but not more than once – during the season (i.e. since April 2009). 9/10

Latest Run.
Ran between 20 and 49 days ago. 10/10

Ability.
Aim for horses of a high-standard who have won a Class 1 Chase in their career, or if they didn’t win they finished
second at this level. 9/10

National Form.
Placed over the National fences or had a top-five finish in the Welsh National, Irish National or Hennessy Gold Cup. 10/10

First-timers.
Horses that are having their first run over the National fences have a good record. Of the winners over the last ten years who weren’t having their first run, four had previously run in the National and fallen. 5/10

Racing Post Rating.
Horses who have achieved a chase Racing Post Rating of at least 144 have been more successful. 10/10

Measuring these points up against my shortlist of 11 produces only four possible winners:

Snowy Morning
Can't Buy Time
Big Fella Thanks
Ballyfitz

Some of the same names keep cropping up again and again!