The Final Verdict

On the eve of the big race, here is a reminder of the key elements you need to look for when trying to pinpoint the National winner:

√ Carrying under 11 stone
√ Rated between 136 and 149
√ Aged between nine and eleven
√ Winner over three miles plus
√ Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences
√ Ran within the last 49 days
√ Finished placed this season
√ Form in a ‘National’ race

It's looking like a really tricky contest this year, with no horse neatly fitting all of these criteria, even those on the shortlist. Just as a reminder, the following 11 horses (out of 40) qualify on the trends to make the shortlist:

Ballyholland
Beat The Boys
Can't Buy Time
Snowy Morning
Big Fella Thanks
Ellerslie George
Ballyfitz
Eric's Charm
Ollie Magern
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud

Three of these contenders are 8 year olds - Big Fella Thanks, Arbor Supreme and Can't Buy Time. You would normally approach such horses with a degree of caution as they are often not experienced enough.

At the other end of the scale you could also argue that the three veterans, Eric's Charm, Ollie Magern and Hello Bud are too old now at 12 to win a race of this nature.

Another three horses on the list do not have a senior chase win over three miles; Ballyholland, Ballyfitz and Snowy Morning.

The final two horses on the list, Beat The Boys and Ellerslie George, simply do not look good enough - and crucially do not have any form in a 'National' type race over a marathon distance.

So this year to find the winner we'll really need to be a little flexible on at least one or more of the criteria.

I keep coming back to stamina being the most important element - and therefore we have to consider the following horses very carefully:

Tricky Trickster (won over 4 miles)
Niche Market (won over 3 miles, 5 furlongs)
Dream Alliance (won over 3 miles, 5 furlongs)
Arbor Supreme (won over 3 miles, 6 furlongs)
Hello Bud (won over 4 miles, half a furlong)

Four out of the five above contested the Irish or Welsh National. Niche Market and Dream Alliance won these respective races, but like Tricky Trickster are just too high in the weights to qualify on the shortlist. Tricky Trickster is also just a seven year old so would also be rejected on this basis.

Niche Market and Dream Alliance are both nine years old and therefore right on the money on most of the trends bar the all important weight and rating (they are carrying 11st 4lb and 11st 3lb respectively). So it's just a question of whether you want to extend the parameters a little to bring these two into the reckoning.

The only two horses that appear on the final shortlist of 11 contenders according to the trends are Arbor Supreme (15th in the Irish National) and Hello Bud (winner of the Scottish National, pulled up in the Welsh National). At 8 and 12 years old respectively they just fall outside the ideal age bracket, but there are many other horses that have won at the same age over the years, including Bindaree (8) and Amberleigh House (12) in the last decade.

So they are as close as we're going to get this year. My two recommendations are therefore ARBOR SUPREME and HELLO BUD:

ARBOR SUPREME

Weight - 10st 8lb
Rating - 142
Age - 8
Stamina - winner over 3m 6f
Chase runs - 16
Season runs - 4
Last ran - 41 days ago
Season form - 2nd in Grade B Handicap, 3rd in 2009 Thyestes Chase
National form - 15th in Irish National

HELLO BUD

Weight - 10st 6lb
Rating - 140
Age - 12
Stamina - winner over 4m 1/2f
Chase runs - 23
Season runs - 6
Last ran - 23 days ago
Season form - 3rd in Grade 3 Handicap
National form - won 2009 Scottish National, pulled up in Welsh National

These two horses are currently available at 16/1 and 50/1 so worth an each way bet on both...

GOOD LUCK!