Aintree Factor

Much has been made of the Aintree factor in recent years... Yes, it's true that half of the winners in the last 10 years had previous experience in the Grand National - and two of them had also won over the big birch fences in the Becher Chase. But does that mean that we should apply the 'horses for courses' rule at Aintree?

Let's examine this a little further, looking at all 14 winners since 1996:

Rough Quest - won at his 1st attempt round Aintree

Lord Gyllene - won at his 1st attempt round Aintree

Earth Summit - won at his 1st attempt round Aintree, had won the Scottish and Welsh National

Bobbyjo - won at 1st attempt round Aintree, had previously won the Irish National

Papillon - won at 1st attempt round Aintree, had previously finished 2nd in the Irish National

Red Marauder - won on his 2nd attempt; a faller the previous year

Bindaree - won on his 1st attempt over the big fences, although had run at Aintree before (without success)

Amberleigh House - won on his 3rd attempt; had finished 3rd the previous year and was specialist over the big fences, having won and finished 2nd in the Becher and finished 2nd in the Topham

Monty's Pass - won on his 1st attempt, although had previously finished second over the big fences in the Topham Chase

Hedgehunter - won at his 2nd attempt; a faller the previous year

Numbersixvalverde - won at his 1st attempt, had previously won the Irish National

Silver Birch - won on his 2nd attempt, three years after winning the Becher Chase; a faller the previous year

Comply or Die - won on his 1st attempt round Aintree

Mon Mome - won on his 2nd attempt after finishing 10th the previous year

So what can we deduce from this?

My own view would be that the Aintree factor has been overstated; while it is certainly not a negative to have run in the big race before, just as many horses won at their first attempt. So it's inconclusive at best.

Yes, there have been Aintree specialists like Amberleigh House and Silver Birch winning in the past ten years but this is not a strong enough trend to place too much emphasis on.

From the above list, previous experience at marathon distances - including the Grand National itself, but not exclusively - is far more important than having already tackled the big birch fences.

Of this year's field, aside from the three previous winners Mon Mome, Comply or Die and Silver Birch, the following horses have either had experience in the National or winning form round Aintree:

Madison Du Berlais - 2nd attempt (fell in 2008); won the 2009 totesport Bowl at Aintree

Black Apalachi - 3rd attempt (fell in 2008, unseated rider in 2009); won the 2008 Becher Chase

Vic Venturi - 1st attempt; won the 2009 Becher Chase

Cloudy Lane - 3rd attempt (6th in 2008, unseated rider in 2009)

My Will - 2nd attempt (third in 2009)

Preists Leap - 2nd attempt (14th in 2009)

Can't Buy Time - 2nd attempt (fell in 2009)

Snowy Morning - 3rd attempt (3rd in 2008, 9th in 2009)

Big Fella Thanks - 2nd attempt (6th in 2009)

State of Play - 2nd attempt (4th in 2009)

King John's Castle - 2nd attempt (2nd in 2008)

Ollie Magern - 2nd attempt (fell in 2009)

Irish Raptor - won the 2009 Topham Chase (2nd in 2008 Topham)

Mr Pointment - 2nd attempt (pulled up in 2008); won the 2007 Becher Chase (2nd in 2008)

Cerium - 2nd attempt (5th in 2009)

As you can see, there are far too many horses that have another crack at these fences for it to be a real pointer to their chances one way or the other...