The Last Post

OK, it's crunch time... Just two and a half hours before the big race.

For my last post, I'm going to go against the trends slightly by stating boldly that I think the winner will come from the weight range between 10st 11lb and 11st 4lb.

The horses that fall into this bracket all have the class and ability to win a race of this nature - including plenty of fancied contenders.

The more I think about it, the more important this key statistic is too:

All of the last ten winners were placed over the National fences or had a top-five finish in the Welsh National, Irish National or Hennessy Gold Cup.

Excluding any of those that are set to carry 11st 5lb or higher, the following horses qualify:

Niche Market (won Irish National, third in a Hennessy)
Dream Alliance (won Welsh National, second in a Hennessy)
My Will (third in Grand National, 7th in Hennessy)
Snowy Morning (third in Grand National, 8th in Hennessy)
State of Play (won Hennessy, fourth in Grand National)
Character Building (third in a Hennessy)
King John's Castle (second in Grand National)
Ballyfitz (fifth in Welsh National)

If you discount those carrying over 11 stone, then only the bottom five qualify. But I really don't think you can discount the chances of NICHE MARKET and DREAM ALLIANCE as they both tick two of the all important form boxes.

I know that this goes against the strict trends, but I just have a funny feeling they could go out of the window this year and greater flexibility is required.

OR if you want to apply the trends strictly, then SNOWY MORNING would be the only qualifier. So on the day of the race, I'll be betting on these three again to add to my previous personal shortlist of five.

Check the time of this post - 1.40pm on Saturday 10th April - just so you know I'm not using the benefit of hindsight!!!